By Katherine Harrington, President & CEO | West Des Moines Chamber of Commerce
Recently, the West Des Moines Chamber of Commerce held its annual Economic Update luncheon and featured managing director & client portfolio manager from Principal Asset Management, Marc Dummer. During Marc’s presentation, he covered many facets of the U.S. and world economy. For those of you who were not able to attend the event, here’s a summary of the key points he discussed:
- Economic Cycles: Marc emphasized that economic cycles happen regularly and should be expected.
- Global Growth: Global growth is slowing down, but this slowdown has also affected the United States.
- Stock Market Outlook: Despite the slowdown, the stock market is not anticipating a recession.
- Economic Recovery: Marc mentioned that there’s some optimism for economic recovery, with “jam back in the donut.”
- Interest Rate Uncertainty: It’s challenging to predict interest rates accurately, and they can fluctuate unexpectedly.
- Headwinds in the US: There are challenges ahead for the US economy, including concerns that consumers are running out of resources to support economic growth.
- Economic Stimulus: He mentioned the influence of certain events, like the Barbie and Oppenheimer movie, in injecting money into the economy.
- Supply Chain Diversification: Many companies are diversifying their supply chains in response to global disruptions.
- Commodity Investment: There has been underinvestment in commodity extraction, and the price of commodities can be influenced by supply constraints or surges in demand.
- Inflation: High commodity costs and lower unemployment have contributed to higher inflation. Companies may remain resilient to higher interest rates next year.
- Economic Growth: During periods of economic growth, revenues increase, costs shrink, and company earnings go up.
- 2022 Outlook: 2022 might be a challenging year for investors.
- Inflation Expectations: In the absence of a deep recession, inflation is expected to settle around central bank targets.
- Housing Market: There’s a shortage of housing supply, leading to high house prices that aren’t going down easily.
- Wage Growth: With high wages, it’s difficult for them to decrease, contributing to inflation.
- Job Openings: There’s a significant number of job openings compared to available employees, which is expected to keep wages high.
- Recession Outlook: The baseline scenario predicts a short and shallow recession in 2024, with resilience in the market.
- Inflation Control: There’s a focus on addressing inflation in the economy, with hopes for a soft landing.
- Interest Rate Timing: Rate cuts are unlikely until mid-2024, and current interest rates are considered appropriate.
- US Market: The US remains the most expensive market for investors.
These points give a comprehensive overview of the economic landscape and the challenges and opportunities that Marc Dummer discussed during the event. We hope to see you soon at the next West Des Moines Chamber of Commerce event. Thank you to our sponsors who helped to make this event possible including presenting sponsor Shive-Hattery, and supporting sponsor Principal Financial Network of Central Iowa.